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Taylor pushed his glasses back up his nose and nodded in return. “You know anything about all this Russian shit that’s justhit the fan, Jonas?” he asked conversationally.
“I may have a few ideas,” Murphy allowed. How many of his cards he played during this meeting would depend entirely on thesituation. The ECR was one of the most secure places in the Pentagon, perhaps in the whole world. But one of the most basicrules of intelligence was that secrets distributed too widely were very soon no longer secrets at all. There were an awfullot of people in this room right now, and leaking classified information to favorite journalists was an old, old game in Washington,D.C.
“Well, I just hope you brought enough intel to share with everybody,” Taylor retorted with a lopsided grin, obviously awareof the DNI’s inner misgivings. Briskly, he activated the microphone in front of him and tapped at it. “Okay, folks, let’sget started. The clock is running, and the president wants our recommendations on his desk, ASAP.” As the room quieted down,he nodded to the briefer, a Navy two-star, up at the podium. “Go ahead and fill us in on what’s been happening over the pastseveral hours, Admiral.”
Short, trim, and fearlessly direct, Rear Admiral Kristin Chao was the current head of the Pentagon’s operations directorate. She pushed a control on her podium, dimming the lights. Simultaneously, screens lit up on the wall behind her. One showed a large-scale digital map of the entire Russian Federation. The rest showed smaller-scale maps of Moscow and its environs, the main bases of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, and the primary ports of Russia’s Northern, Baltic, Black Sea, and Pacific Fleets. A slew of icons representing surface-to-air missile units, fighter regiments, and air surveillance radars appeared across Russia’s vast Far East region. “Beginning approximately eight hours ago, our reconnaissance satellites and other assets detected a much-higher operational tempo across this area,” the admiral said tersely. “Combined with the temporary closure of Polar Route One across central Russia by Moscow, we assessed this activity as signaling the start of a large-scale air defense exercise of some kind.”
“An exercise that we were not informed about in advance, despite the Kremlin’s clear treaty obligations,” Taylor commented dryly.
“No, sir,” Chao agreed. Her expression was unreadable. “But as you know, Moscow honors its diplomatic obligations sparingly,if at all.”
“And even then often only by accident,” Taylor said with a cynical snort.
Chao smiled thinly. “So it seems, Mr. Secretary.”
“So what’s changed?”
“A great deal,” the admiral said simply. She touched another control. Dozens of new icons flashed into existence across themap of Russia and the smaller screens which showed close-up views of its most important political, military, and industrialcenters. “Approximately sixty-five minutes ago, SIGINT—signals intelligence—intercepts and new satellite imagery confirmedthat Moscow has ordered all of its air defense regiments, radars, and combat air units to their highest alert status. At the same time, the Russianshave also closed all transpolar air routes across their territory. No new international flights are being allowed into theirairspace.”
“What’s the Kremlin’s explanation for this sudden flurry of activity, Kristin?” the Air Force chief of staff, General Frank Neary, asked.
She shrugged. “There isn’t one, sir.” Her gaze was unwavering. “We’ve reached out on the hotline. But we’re not getting responsesfrom any senior Russian officials, either military or civilian.”
“They’re not taking our calls?” Neary asked in disbelief.
“Either that, or President Zhdanov and his top people are all still in transit to safe locations,” Chao said bluntly. “Likethe nuclear command and control bunkers outside Moscow. Or their new Mount Kosvinsky Kamen special facility deep in the northernUrals.”
Neary stared at her, as did almost everyone else in the Emergency Conference Room. “Are you seriously suggesting that theRussians are preparing for war?”
“We can’t ignore the possibility.” She brought up a series of satellite images. They showed dozens of advanced fighter aircraftand Tu-160M2, Tu-22M, and Tu-95 heavy bombers being fueled and armed at bases across the Russian Federation. “There is a seriousconcern that all of this unprecedented activity could be the prelude to a surprise military move against the United Statesor some of our allies.” That created a tremendous stir across the crowded room.
Taylor leaned forward. Behind his thick lenses, the secretary of defense’s eyes were watchful. “Do we have any intelligencethat might argue against that rather unnerving possibility, Admiral?”
“Yes, sir,” Chao admitted. She tapped another button. New images appeared, these showing the docks and submarine pens around Murmansk and Vladivostok. “So far, we see no indications that Russia’s ballistic missile submarines or surface combatants are changing their peacetime operational patterns.” More detailed satellite pictures appeared, this time of major Russian army bases. Row after row of parked main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery pieces, mobile antiaircraft weapons, and other vehicles were visible. Plainly labeled “before” and “after” images showed no significant changes over the past several days. “Nor do we detect any evidence that its ground combat forces are moving to a higher state of readiness.”
“What about their ICBM force?” Neary asked.
The admiral spread her hands. “It’s difficult to say, General. We haven’t yet picked up any firm evidence that their mobileand silo-based strategic nuclear missiles are moving to a higher state of readiness . . . but I’m not sure we would in anycase.”
Neary nodded grimly. Keeping track of Russia’s road-mobile long-range missiles was a difficult task at any time, and Moscowhad secure landline connections to its hardened ICBM silos. If the Kremlin actually issued strike orders to its land-basedstrategic nuclear forces, the U.S. probably wouldn’t know anything until its satellites spotted the heat plumes from hundredsof separate missile launches. And at that point, Washington would have less than thirty minutes’ warning before a devastatinghail of nuclear warheads detonated across the United States. It was the nightmare scenario that had haunted American presidentsand military leaders for decades.
“But as far as we know now,
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