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1, 2020, and Mike Bell, November 14, 2019; Brian Merchant, The One Device: The Secret History of the iPhone (New York: Little, Brown, 2017).

Chapter 2. The Armchair Quarterback and the Impostor

“Ignorance more frequently”: Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man (London: Penguin Classics, 1871/2004).

“mentally blind to her blindness”: Gabriel Anton, “On the Self-Awareness of Focal Drain Diseases by the Patient in Cortical Blindness and Cortical Deafness,” Archiv für Psychiatrie und Nervenkrankheiten 32 (1899): 86–127.

“One of the most striking features”: Frederick C. Redlich and Joseph F. Dorsey, “Denial of Blindness by Patients with Cerebral Disease,” Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry 53 (1945): 407–17.

the Roman philosopher Seneca: Charles André, “Seneca and the First Description of Anton Syndrome,” Journal of Neuro-Ophthalmology 38 (2018): 511–13.

a deficit of self-awareness: Giuseppe Vallar and Roberta Ronchi, “Anosognosia for Motor and Sensory Deficits after Unilateral Brain Damage: A Review,” Restorative Neurology and Neuroscience 24 (2006): 247–57; Howard C. Hughes, Robert Fendrich, and Sarah E. Streeter, “The Diversity of the Human Visual Experience,” in Perception and Its Modalities, ed. Dustin Stokes, Moham Matthen, and Stephen Biggs (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015); David Dunning, Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself (New York: Psychology Press, 2005); Costanza Papagno and Giuseppe Vallar, “Anosognosia for Left Hemiplegia: Babinski’s (1914) Cases,” in Classic Cases in Neuropsychology, vol. 2, ed. Christopher Code et al. (New York: Psychology Press, 2003); Jiann-Jy Chen et al., “Anton-Babinski Syndrome in an Old Patient: A Case Report and Literature Review,” Psychogeriatrics 15 (2015): 58–61; Susan M. McGlynn, “Impaired Awareness of Deficits in a Psychiatric Context: Implications for Rehabilitation,” in Metacognition in Educational Theory and Practice, ed. Douglas J. Hacker, John Dunlosky, and Arthur C. Graesser (Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, 1998).

“My experience and knowledge”: Agence France Presse, “Iceland’s Crisis-Era Central Bank Chief to Run for President,” Yahoo! News, May 8, 2016, www.yahoo.com/news/icelands-crisis-era-central-bank-chief-run-president-152717120.html.

women typically underestimated: Samantha C. Paustian-Underdahl, Lisa Slattery Walker, and David J. Woehr, “Gender and Perceptions of Leadership Effectiveness: A Meta-analysis of Contextual Moderators,” Journal of Applied Psychology 99 (2014): 1129–45.

competence exceeds confidence: Mark R. Leary et al., “The Impostor Phenomenon: Self-Perceptions, Reflected Appraisals, and Interpersonal Strategies,” Journal of Personality 68 (2000): 725–56; Karina K. L. Mak, Sabina Kleitman, and Maree J. Abbott, “Impostor Phenomenon Measurement Scales: A Systematic Review,” Frontiers in Psychology 10 (2019): 671.

Ig™ Nobel Prize: Improbable, “The 2000 Ig™ Nobel Prize Ceremony,” October 5, 2000, www.improbable.com/ig/2000.

original Dunning-Kruger studies: Justin Kruger and David Dunning, “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (1999): 1121–34.

The less intelligent we are: John D. Mayer, A. T. Panter, and David R. Caruso, “When People Estimate Their Personal Intelligence Who Is Overconfident? Who Is Accurate?,” Journal of Personality (May 19, 2020).

when economists evaluated: Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur, and John Van Reenen, “JEEA-FBBVA Lecture 2013: The New Empirical Economics of Management,” Journal of the European Economic Association 12 (2014): 835–76, https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12094.

it was most rampant: Xavier Cirera and William F. Maloney, The Innovation Paradox (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2017); Nicholas Bloom et al., “Management Practices across Firms and Countries,” Academy of Management Perspectives 26 (2012): 12–33.

The more superior participants: Michael P. Hall and Kaitlin T. Raimi, “Is Belief Superiority Justified by Superior Knowledge?,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 76 (2018): 290–306.

“The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club”: Brian Resnick, “Intellectual Humility: The Importance of Knowing You Might Be Wrong,” Vox, January 4, 2019, www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication.

claim knowledge about fictional topics: John Jerrim, Phil Parker, and Nikki Shure, “Bullshitters. Who Are They and What Do We Know about Their Lives?,” IZA Institute of Labor Economics, DP No. 12282, April 2019, ftp.iza.org/dp12282.pdf; Christopher Ingraham, “Rich Guys Are Most Likely to Have No Idea What They’re Talking About, Study Suggests,” Washington Post, April 26, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/04/26/rich-guys-are-most-likely-have-no-idea-what-theyre-talking-about-study-finds.

“giving a tidy demonstration”: Nina Strohminger (@NinaStrohminger), January 8, 2019, twitter.com/NinaStrohminger/status/1082651708617039875?s=20.

On the questions above: Mark L. Wolraich, David B. Wilson, and J. Wade White, “The Effect of Sugar on Behavior and Cognition in Children: A Meta-analysis,” Journal of the American Medical Association 274 (1995): 1617–21; see also Konstantinos Mantantzis et al., “Sugar Rush or Sugar Crash? A Meta-analysis of Carbohydrate Effects on Mood,” Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews 101 (2019): 45–67.

people who scored the lowest: Oliver J. Sheldon, David Dunning, and Daniel R. Ames, “Emotionally Unskilled, Unaware, and Uninterested in Learning More: Reactions to Feedback about Deficits in Emotional Intelligence,” Journal of Applied Psychology 99 (2014): 125–37.

Yet motivation is only part: Gilles E. Gignac and Marcin Zajenkowski, “The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is (Mostly) a Statistical Artefact: Valid Approaches to Testing the Hypothesis with Individual Differences Data,” Intelligence 80 (2020): 101449; Tal Yarkoni, “What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t,” July 7, 2010, www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt.

when they’re offered a $100 bill: Joyce Ehrlinger et al., “Why the Unskilled Are Unaware: Further Explorations of (Absent) Self-Insight among the Incompetent,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 105 (2008): 98–121.

We tend to overestimate ourselves: Spencer Greenberg and Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, “You Are Not as Good at Kissing as You Think. But You Are Better at Dancing,” New York Times, April 6, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/overconfidence-men-women.html.

simulated zombie apocalypse: Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning, “Overconfidence among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 114 (2018): 10–28.

patient mortality rates: John Q. Young et al., “‘July Effect’: Impact of the Academic Year-End Changeover on Patient Outcomes,” Annals of Internal Medicine 155 (2011): 309–15; Sarah Kliff, “The July Effect Is Real: New Doctors Really Do Make Hospitals More Dangerous,” Vox, July 13, 2014, www.vox.com/2014/7/13/5893653/the-july-effect-is-real-new-doctors-really-do-make-hospitals-more.

“fiercely loyal henchmen”: Roger Boyes, Meltdown Iceland: Lessons on the World Financial Crisis from a Small Bankrupt Island (New York: Bloomsbury, 2009).

“arrogance, his absolute conviction”: Boyes, Meltdown Iceland; “Cracks in the Crust,” Economist, December 11, 2008, www.economist.com/briefing/2008/12/11/cracks-in-the-crust; Heather Farmbrough, “How Iceland’s Banking Collapse Created an Opportunity,” Forbes, December 23, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2019/12/23/how-icelands-banking-collapse-created-an-opportunity/#72693f035e97; “25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis,” Time, February 10, 2009, content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877340,00.html; John L. Campbell and John A. Hall, The Paradox of Vulnerability: States, Nationalism & the Financial Crisis (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017); Robert

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