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11, 2018.

Epilogue

“‘What I believe’”: Candace Falk, Barry Pateman, and Jessica Moran, eds., Emma Goldman, vol. 2, A Documentary History of the American Years (Champaign: University of Illinois Press, 2008).

“write a book that ended with the word Mayonnaise”: Richard Brautigan, Trout Fishing in America (New York: Delta, 1967).

“A new scientific truth”: Max K. Planck, Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers (New York: Greenwood, 1950/1968).

generations are replaced: “Societies Change Their Minds Faster Than People Do,” Economist, October 31, 2019, www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/31/societies-change-their-minds-faster-than-people-do.

the word scientist is relatively new: William Whewell, The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences (New York: Johnson, 1840/1967); “William Whewell,” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, December 23, 2000, last revised September 22, 2017, plato.stanford.edu/entries/whewell.

“above all, try something”: Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Address at Oglethorpe University,” May 22, 1932, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-oglethorpe-university-atlanta-georgia.

“something unspecified is no better than nothing”: “Hoover and Roosevelt,” New York Times, May 24, 1932, www.nytimes.com/1932/05/24/archives/hoover-and-roosevelt.html.

act of political stupidity: Paul Stephen Hudson, “A Call for ‘Bold Persistent Experimentation’: FDR’s Oglethorpe University Commencement Address, 1932,” Georgia Historical Quarterly (Summer 1994), https://georgiainfo.galileo.usg.edu/topics/history/related_article/progressive-era-world-war-ii-1901-1945/background-to-fdrs-ties-to-georgia/a-call-for-bold-persistent-experimentation-fdrs-oglethorpe-university-comme.

ILLUSTRATION CREDITS

Charts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 by Matt Shirley.

35: Jason Adam Katzenstein/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank; © Condé Nast.

36: Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur, and John Van Reenen. “JEEA-FBBVA Lecture 2013: The New Empirical Economics of Management,” Journal of the European Economic Association 12, no. 4 (August 1, 2014): 835–76. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12094.

37: Zach Weinersmith/www.smbc-comics.com.

38: C. Sanchez and D. Dunning. “Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 114, no. 1 (2018), 10–28. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000102.

39, 40, 41: © Doug Savage, www.savagechickens.com.

42: Ellis Rosen/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank; © Condé Nast.

43: David Sipress/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank; © Condé Nast.

44: CreateDebate user Loudacris/CC BY 3.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0.

45: Map by casinoinsider.com.

46 and 47: wordle.net.

48: Calvin & Hobbes © 1993 Watterson. Reprinted with permission of ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION. All rights reserved.

49: Non Sequitur © 2016 Wiley Ink, Inc. Dist. by ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.

50: A. Leiserowitz, E. Maibach, S. Rosenthal, J. Kotcher, P. Bergquist, M. Ballew, M. Goldberg, and A. Gustafson. “Climate Change in the American Mind: November 2019.” Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, 2019.

51: xkcd.com.

52: Katharina Kugler.

53: © JimBenton.com.

54: Steve Macone/The New Yorker Collection/The Cartoon Bank; © Condé Nast.

55: www.CartoonCollections.com.

56: © 2020 EL Education.

57: © Chris Madden.

58: Hayley Lewis, Sketchnote summary of A Spectrum of Reasons for Failure. © 2020 HALO Psychology Limited. Illustration drawn May 2020. London, United Kingdom. / Edmondson, A. C. (2011, April). From “Strategies for Learning from Failure,” Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2011/04/strategies-for-learning-from-failure. This illustration is protected by UK and International copyright laws. Reproduction and distribution of the illustration without prior written permission of the artist is prohibited.

59: Cartoon © by Guy Downes. For more information: www.officeguycartoons.com.

60: Photo by Arthur Gebuys Photography/Shutterstock.

61: Saturday Night Live/NBC.

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INDEX

The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.

Page numbers in italics refer to charts and illustrations.

abortion, conversations on, 163–64, 165–66

active learning, 186–88

lectures vs., 190–93, 196

addiction:

motivational interviewing as tool for combating, 149

as reinforced by failed arguments against, 146

agreeableness, 81–82

as barrier to rethinking, 83

social harmony vs. cognitive consensus in, 89

see also disagreeable people

Albert, Robert, 80–81

Allen, Grant, 185

Amazon, 218, 219

amygdala, and attacks on core beliefs, 60

animosity, stereotypes and, 127

Anton, Gabriel, 33–34

Anton’s syndrome, 33–35

Apple, iPhone introduced by, 29–31

approval, desire for, politician mindset and, 18–19, 21, 22, 22, 28, 80, 233

Arbery, Ahmaud, 10

arguments:

hierarchy of, 114, 114

prosecutor mindset and, 18, 19, 26, 233

see also debates

Aristotle, 247–48

armchair quarterback syndrome, 37

as barrier to rethinking, 42

impostor syndrome vs., 51

Arnold, Karen, 195

arrogance, 54

humility vs., 45

Ashby, Jeff, 129

Asimov, Isaac, 59

assumptions, 8, 9–12

active questioning of, 25

learning to rethink, 18

astrological signs, stereotyping and, 137–39

astronauts, overview effect and, 128–29

attachment, to erroneous ideas, 62

Austin (first grader), 201–2

autism, vaccination mistakenly linked to, 144, 158–59

awestruck effect, 192

Barsade, Sigal, 89

Battier, Shane, 131

Beethoven, Ludwig van, 114–15

beliefs and opinions, 26

attachment to, 62

attacks on, as threats to sense of self, 59–60, 63–64, 127

biases and, see biases

blind spots in, 75

calcification of, 4, 10, 17

challenges to, as opportunities for rethinking, 74, 75–76

convincing others to rethink, 97–160

core values vs., 64, 66n, 251

counterfactual thinking and, 137–39

debates about, see debates

detaching sense of self from, 12, 62–64, 69–70, 74, 76, 251–52

erroneous, see erroneous thinking

evidence vs., 24–25, 48, 73

evolution of, 26, 58

freedom of choice in, 60, 148, 255

Murray’s experiment on, 55–58, 60, 74–75

need for rethinking of, 12, 17, 18, 24, 55–76, 243

overconfidence and, 44

politician mindset in, see politician mindset

preacher mindset in, see preacher mindset

prosecutor mindset in, see prosecutor mindset

as reinforced by failed arguments against, 144–45

scientist mindset in, see scientist mindset

second opinions and, 18, 52

staying true to, 16

weakly held, 59, 116–17

Benchley, Robert, 165

Berger, Ron, 198–203, 246

best practices, process accountability vs., 216–19, 256

Beugoms, Jean-Pierre, 65–66

election forecasting by, 66–67, 69–71, 70, 71, 72–73

and joy of being wrong, 70, 71–72

scientist mindset of, 66–67

Bezos, Jeff, 72, 219

Bhutan, Gross National Happiness index of, 237

biases:

binary, 165–66, 169, 181

confirmation, 25, 174n, 252

denial of, 25

desirability, 25, 168, 173, 174n

status quo, 194n

Bigombe, Betty, in Uganda peace talks, 155–57, 159

binary bias, 165–66, 169, 181

Bird, Brad, 83, 87–88, 89

BlackBerry, 16, 23, 29, 31

Black Lives Matter movement, 10

Blakely, Sara, 47

blindness, patients’ denial of, 33–35

blind spots, mental, 60

as barrier to rethinking, 35

confidence and, 41, 45

recognition of, 54

self-awareness and, 48

blirtatiousness, 226–27

Boodman, Eric, 148

Boston Red Sox, Yankees’ rivalry with, 122–24, 126–27, 128, 133–36

brain, reward centers in, 123

Brautigan, Richard, 245n

Breuhaus, Rachel, 111

Brexit, 66, 69

business, motivational interviewing in, 151–53

career choices, 225–43

as actions vs. identities, 230

author and, 225–26

escalation of commitment in, 229–30

of Ryan Grant, 226–28, 230, 241

identity foreclosure and, 230, 242

overthinking and, 235n

periodic checkups on, 233–35

rethinking, 228, 230, 242–43

scientist mindset and, 235

“what do you want to be” question and, 225–26, 230, 231, 232

see also life plans

Cassidy, Chris, 205–7

caveats, 173–74, 176, 255

Cavett, Dick, 143

Central

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